Home / Blue Archive / Pity Odds Table
Blue Archive 5★ Pity Odds — Every Pull, Exact Probability
The complete rate table for Blue Archive: what each individual pull is worth, when soft pity kicks in, and your cumulative chance of a 5★ by any pull count. All numbers computed with the exact rate model — 3.0% base, soft pity from pull 1 (+0%/pull), hard pity at 200.
key numbers
Average 5★ rate (all pulls)
~0.5%
Median 5★ arrives at
23 pulls
90% chance by
76 pulls
Soft pity average rate
3.0%/pull
per-pull probability table
| Pull | Per-pull 5★ rate | Chance of first 5★ here | Cumulative (by this pull) | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.0% ↑ | 3.00% | 3.0% | SOFT STARTS |
| 2 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.91% | 5.9% | SOFT |
| 3 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.82% | 8.7% | SOFT |
| 4 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.74% | 11.5% | SOFT |
| 5 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.66% | 14.1% | SOFT |
| 6 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.58% | 16.7% | SOFT |
| 7 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.50% | 19.2% | SOFT |
| 8 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.42% | 21.6% | SOFT |
| 9 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.35% | 24.0% | SOFT |
| 10 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.28% | 26.3% | SOFT |
| 11 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.21% | 28.5% | SOFT |
| 12 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.15% | 30.6% | SOFT |
| 13 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.08% | 32.7% | SOFT |
| 14 | 3.0% ↑ | 2.02% | 34.7% | SOFT |
| 15 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.96% | 36.7% | SOFT |
| 16 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.90% | 38.6% | SOFT |
| 17 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.84% | 40.4% | SOFT |
| 18 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.79% | 42.2% | SOFT |
| 19 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.73% | 43.9% | SOFT |
| 20 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.68% | 45.6% | SOFT |
| 21 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.63% | 47.3% | SOFT |
| 22 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.58% | 48.8% | SOFT |
| 23 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.53% | 50.4% | SOFT |
| 24 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.49% | 51.9% | SOFT |
| 25 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.44% | 53.3% | SOFT |
| 26 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.40% | 54.7% | SOFT |
| 27 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.36% | 56.1% | SOFT |
| 28 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.32% | 57.4% | SOFT |
| 29 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.28% | 58.7% | SOFT |
| 30 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.24% | 59.9% | SOFT |
| 31 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.20% | 61.1% | SOFT |
| 32 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.17% | 62.3% | SOFT |
| 33 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.13% | 63.4% | SOFT |
| 34 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.10% | 64.5% | SOFT |
| 35 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.07% | 65.6% | SOFT |
| 36 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.03% | 66.6% | SOFT |
| 37 | 3.0% ↑ | 1.00% | 67.6% | SOFT |
| 38 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.97% | 68.6% | SOFT |
| 39 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.94% | 69.5% | SOFT |
| 40 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.91% | 70.4% | SOFT |
| 41 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.89% | 71.3% | SOFT |
| 42 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.86% | 72.2% | SOFT |
| 43 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.83% | 73.0% | SOFT |
| 44 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.81% | 73.8% | SOFT |
| 45 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.79% | 74.6% | SOFT |
| 46 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.76% | 75.4% | SOFT |
| 47 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.74% | 76.1% | SOFT |
| 48 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.72% | 76.8% | SOFT |
| 49 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.70% | 77.5% | SOFT |
| 50 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.67% | 78.2% | SOFT |
| 51 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.65% | 78.8% | SOFT |
| 52 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.63% | 79.5% | SOFT |
| 53 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.62% | 80.1% | SOFT |
| 54 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.60% | 80.7% | SOFT |
| 55 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.58% | 81.3% | SOFT |
| 56 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.56% | 81.8% | SOFT |
| 57 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.54% | 82.4% | SOFT |
| 58 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.53% | 82.9% | SOFT |
| 59 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.51% | 83.4% | SOFT |
| 60 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.50% | 83.9% | SOFT |
| 61 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.48% | 84.4% | SOFT |
| 62 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.47% | 84.9% | SOFT |
| 63 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.45% | 85.3% | SOFT |
| 64 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.44% | 85.8% | SOFT |
| 65 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.43% | 86.2% | SOFT |
| 66 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.41% | 86.6% | SOFT |
| 67 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.40% | 87.0% | SOFT |
| 68 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.39% | 87.4% | SOFT |
| 69 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.38% | 87.8% | SOFT |
| 70 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.37% | 88.1% | SOFT |
| 71 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.36% | 88.5% | SOFT |
| 72 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.35% | 88.8% | SOFT |
| 73 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.33% | 89.2% | SOFT |
| 74 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.32% | 89.5% | SOFT |
| 75 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.31% | 89.8% | SOFT |
| 76 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.31% | 90.1% | SOFT |
| 77 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.30% | 90.4% | SOFT |
| 78 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.29% | 90.7% | SOFT |
| 79 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.28% | 91.0% | SOFT |
| 80 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.27% | 91.3% | SOFT |
| 81 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.26% | 91.5% | SOFT |
| 82 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.25% | 91.8% | SOFT |
| 83 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.25% | 92.0% | SOFT |
| 84 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.24% | 92.3% | SOFT |
| 85 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.23% | 92.5% | SOFT |
| 86 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.23% | 92.7% | SOFT |
| 87 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.22% | 92.9% | SOFT |
| 88 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.21% | 93.1% | SOFT |
| 89 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.21% | 93.4% | SOFT |
| 90 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.20% | 93.6% | SOFT |
| 91 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.19% | 93.7% | SOFT |
| 92 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.19% | 93.9% | SOFT |
| 93 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.18% | 94.1% | SOFT |
| 94 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.18% | 94.3% | SOFT |
| 95 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.17% | 94.5% | SOFT |
| 96 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.17% | 94.6% | SOFT |
| 97 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.16% | 94.8% | SOFT |
| 98 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.16% | 94.9% | SOFT |
| 99 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.15% | 95.1% | SOFT |
| 100 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.15% | 95.2% | SOFT |
| 101 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.14% | 95.4% | SOFT |
| 102 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.14% | 95.5% | SOFT |
| 103 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.13% | 95.7% | SOFT |
| 104 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.13% | 95.8% | SOFT |
| 105 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.13% | 95.9% | SOFT |
| 106 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.12% | 96.0% | SOFT |
| 107 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.12% | 96.2% | SOFT |
| 108 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.12% | 96.3% | SOFT |
| 109 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.11% | 96.4% | SOFT |
| 110 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.11% | 96.5% | SOFT |
| 111 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.11% | 96.6% | SOFT |
| 112 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.10% | 96.7% | SOFT |
| 113 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.10% | 96.8% | SOFT |
| 114 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.10% | 96.9% | SOFT |
| 115 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.09% | 97.0% | SOFT |
| 116 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.09% | 97.1% | SOFT |
| 117 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.09% | 97.2% | SOFT |
| 118 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.08% | 97.3% | SOFT |
| 119 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.08% | 97.3% | SOFT |
| 120 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.08% | 97.4% | SOFT |
| 121 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.08% | 97.5% | SOFT |
| 122 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.08% | 97.6% | SOFT |
| 123 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.07% | 97.6% | SOFT |
| 124 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.07% | 97.7% | SOFT |
| 125 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.07% | 97.8% | SOFT |
| 126 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.07% | 97.8% | SOFT |
| 127 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.06% | 97.9% | SOFT |
| 128 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.06% | 98.0% | SOFT |
| 129 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.06% | 98.0% | SOFT |
| 130 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.06% | 98.1% | SOFT |
| 131 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.06% | 98.2% | SOFT |
| 132 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.06% | 98.2% | SOFT |
| 133 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.05% | 98.3% | SOFT |
| 134 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.05% | 98.3% | SOFT |
| 135 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.05% | 98.4% | SOFT |
| 136 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.05% | 98.4% | SOFT |
| 137 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.05% | 98.5% | SOFT |
| 138 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.05% | 98.5% | SOFT |
| 139 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 98.6% | SOFT |
| 140 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 98.6% | SOFT |
| 141 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 98.6% | SOFT |
| 142 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 98.7% | SOFT |
| 143 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 98.7% | SOFT |
| 144 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 98.8% | SOFT |
| 145 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 98.8% | SOFT |
| 146 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 98.8% | SOFT |
| 147 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 98.9% | SOFT |
| 148 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 98.9% | SOFT |
| 149 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 98.9% | SOFT |
| 150 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 99.0% | SOFT |
| 151 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 99.0% | SOFT |
| 152 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 99.0% | SOFT |
| 153 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 99.1% | SOFT |
| 154 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 99.1% | SOFT |
| 155 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 99.1% | SOFT |
| 156 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 99.1% | SOFT |
| 157 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 99.2% | SOFT |
| 158 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.03% | 99.2% | SOFT |
| 159 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.2% | SOFT |
| 160 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.2% | SOFT |
| 161 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.3% | SOFT |
| 162 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.3% | SOFT |
| 163 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.3% | SOFT |
| 164 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.3% | SOFT |
| 165 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.3% | SOFT |
| 166 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.4% | SOFT |
| 167 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.4% | SOFT |
| 168 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.4% | SOFT |
| 169 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.4% | SOFT |
| 170 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.4% | SOFT |
| 171 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.5% | SOFT |
| 172 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.5% | SOFT |
| 173 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.5% | SOFT |
| 174 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 99.5% | SOFT |
| 175 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.5% | SOFT |
| 176 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.5% | SOFT |
| 177 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.5% | SOFT |
| 178 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.6% | SOFT |
| 179 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.6% | SOFT |
| 180 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.6% | SOFT |
| 181 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.6% | SOFT |
| 182 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.6% | SOFT |
| 183 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.6% | SOFT |
| 184 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.6% | SOFT |
| 185 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.6% | SOFT |
| 186 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 187 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 188 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 189 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 190 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 191 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 192 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 193 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 194 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 195 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 196 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 197 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.8% | SOFT |
| 198 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.8% | SOFT |
| 199 | 3.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 99.8% | SOFT |
| 200 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.23% | 100.0% | HARD PITY |
"Chance of first 5★ here" = probability that your very next 5★ lands on exactly this pull, starting from zero pity.
Cumulative = chance you've already pulled a 5★ by this point. Beyond 200 pulls is impossible — hard pity guarantees the 5★.
how to use this
- Most 5★ drop between pull 1 and 200 — the table shows why: after 1, the per-pull rate climbs from 3.0% toward 100%.
- If you're at pull 60 and the banner ends soon, the cumulative column tells you your realistic odds — combine with the banner countdown.
- Want your exact odds with your current pity + guarantee status? Use the pity calculator — it runs this same model with your state.
- Planning a budget? The pull planner projects your savings against these numbers.