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Honkai: Star Rail 5★ Pity Odds — Every Pull, Exact Probability
The complete rate table for Honkai: Star Rail: what each individual pull is worth, when soft pity kicks in, and your cumulative chance of a 5★ by any pull count. All numbers computed with the exact rate model — 0.6% base, soft pity from pull 74 (+6%/pull), hard pity at 90.
key numbers
Average 5★ rate (all pulls)
~0.5%
Median 5★ arrives at
76 pulls
90% chance by
80 pulls
Soft pity average rate
51.6%/pull
per-pull probability table
| Pull | Per-pull 5★ rate | Chance of first 5★ here | Cumulative (by this pull) | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.60% | 0.6% | BASE |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.60% | 1.2% | BASE |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.59% | 1.8% | BASE |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.59% | 2.4% | BASE |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.59% | 3.0% | BASE |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.58% | 3.5% | BASE |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.58% | 4.1% | BASE |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.58% | 4.7% | BASE |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.57% | 5.3% | BASE |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.57% | 5.8% | BASE |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.56% | 6.4% | BASE |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.56% | 7.0% | BASE |
| 13 | 0.6% | 0.56% | 7.5% | BASE |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.55% | 8.1% | BASE |
| 15 | 0.6% | 0.55% | 8.6% | BASE |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.55% | 9.2% | BASE |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.54% | 9.7% | BASE |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.54% | 10.3% | BASE |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.54% | 10.8% | BASE |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.54% | 11.3% | BASE |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.53% | 11.9% | BASE |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.53% | 12.4% | BASE |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.53% | 12.9% | BASE |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.52% | 13.4% | BASE |
| 25 | 0.6% | 0.52% | 14.0% | BASE |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.52% | 14.5% | BASE |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.51% | 15.0% | BASE |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.51% | 15.5% | BASE |
| 29 | 0.6% | 0.51% | 16.0% | BASE |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.50% | 16.5% | BASE |
| 31 | 0.6% | 0.50% | 17.0% | BASE |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.50% | 17.5% | BASE |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.49% | 18.0% | BASE |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.49% | 18.5% | BASE |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.49% | 19.0% | BASE |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.49% | 19.5% | BASE |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.48% | 20.0% | BASE |
| 38 | 0.6% | 0.48% | 20.4% | BASE |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.48% | 20.9% | BASE |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.47% | 21.4% | BASE |
| 41 | 0.6% | 0.47% | 21.9% | BASE |
| 42 | 0.6% | 0.47% | 22.3% | BASE |
| 43 | 0.6% | 0.47% | 22.8% | BASE |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.46% | 23.3% | BASE |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.46% | 23.7% | BASE |
| 46 | 0.6% | 0.46% | 24.2% | BASE |
| 47 | 0.6% | 0.45% | 24.6% | BASE |
| 48 | 0.6% | 0.45% | 25.1% | BASE |
| 49 | 0.6% | 0.45% | 25.5% | BASE |
| 50 | 0.6% | 0.45% | 26.0% | BASE |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.44% | 26.4% | BASE |
| 52 | 0.6% | 0.44% | 26.9% | BASE |
| 53 | 0.6% | 0.44% | 27.3% | BASE |
| 54 | 0.6% | 0.44% | 27.7% | BASE |
| 55 | 0.6% | 0.43% | 28.2% | BASE |
| 56 | 0.6% | 0.43% | 28.6% | BASE |
| 57 | 0.6% | 0.43% | 29.0% | BASE |
| 58 | 0.6% | 0.43% | 29.5% | BASE |
| 59 | 0.6% | 0.42% | 29.9% | BASE |
| 60 | 0.6% | 0.42% | 30.3% | BASE |
| 61 | 0.6% | 0.42% | 30.7% | BASE |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.42% | 31.1% | BASE |
| 63 | 0.6% | 0.41% | 31.6% | BASE |
| 64 | 0.6% | 0.41% | 32.0% | BASE |
| 65 | 0.6% | 0.41% | 32.4% | BASE |
| 66 | 0.6% | 0.41% | 32.8% | BASE |
| 67 | 0.6% | 0.40% | 33.2% | BASE |
| 68 | 0.6% | 0.40% | 33.6% | BASE |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.40% | 34.0% | BASE |
| 70 | 0.6% | 0.40% | 34.4% | BASE |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.39% | 34.8% | BASE |
| 72 | 0.6% | 0.39% | 35.2% | BASE |
| 73 | 0.6% | 0.39% | 35.6% | BASE |
| 74 | 6.6% ↑ | 4.25% | 39.8% | SOFT STARTS |
| 75 | 12.6% ↑ | 7.58% | 47.4% | SOFT |
| 76 | 18.6% ↑ | 9.79% | 57.2% | SOFT |
| 77 | 24.6% ↑ | 10.53% | 67.7% | SOFT |
| 78 | 30.6% ↑ | 9.88% | 77.6% | SOFT |
| 79 | 36.6% ↑ | 8.20% | 85.8% | SOFT |
| 80 | 42.6% ↑ | 6.05% | 91.8% | SOFT |
| 81 | 48.6% ↑ | 3.96% | 95.8% | SOFT |
| 82 | 54.6% ↑ | 2.29% | 98.1% | SOFT |
| 83 | 60.6% ↑ | 1.15% | 99.3% | SOFT |
| 84 | 66.6% ↑ | 0.50% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 85 | 72.6% ↑ | 0.18% | 99.9% | SOFT |
| 86 | 78.6% ↑ | 0.05% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 87 | 84.6% ↑ | 0.01% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 88 | 90.6% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 89 | 96.6% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 90 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | HARD PITY |
"Chance of first 5★ here" = probability that your very next 5★ lands on exactly this pull, starting from zero pity.
Cumulative = chance you've already pulled a 5★ by this point. Beyond 90 pulls is impossible — hard pity guarantees the 5★.
how to use this
- Most 5★ drop between pull 74 and 90 — the table shows why: after 74, the per-pull rate climbs from 0.6% toward 100%.
- If you're at pull 60 and the banner ends soon, the cumulative column tells you your realistic odds — combine with the banner countdown.
- Want your exact odds with your current pity + guarantee status? Use the pity calculator — it runs this same model with your state.
- Planning a budget? The pull planner projects your savings against these numbers.